Abba Gumel

Mathematics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned and How to Avert the Next Pandemic

Abstract

The novel coronavirus that emerged in December 2019, COVID-19, is the greatest public health challenge humans have faced since the 1918 influenza pandemic (it has so far caused over 615 million confirmed cases and 6.5 million deaths). In this talk, I will discuss some of the mathematical modeling approaches used to gain qualitative insight and understanding of the spread and control of the pandemic. Specifically, I will present some mathematical models for assessing the population-level impact of the various intervention strategies (pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) being used to control and mitigate the burden of the pandemic. Continued human interference with the natural ecosystems, such as through anthropogenic climate change, environmental degradation, and land use changes, make us increasingly vulnerable to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases (particularly respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential). I will discuss some of the lessons learned from our COVID-19 modeling studies and propose ways to mitigate the next respiratory pandemic.

About the Speaker

Abba Gumel is a Professor and the Michael and Eugenia Brin Endowed E-Nnovate Chair in Mathematics at the University of Maryland. He also holds joint appointments in the Department of Biology and the Institute for Physical Science and Technology.

Gumel received his Ph.D. in mathematics from Brunel University London in 1994. He is a mathematical biologist who uses mathematical modeling approaches and analysis, backed by data analytics and computation, to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases of major public health significance. The main theme of his work is to use mathematics to contribute to the One Health approach to public health (at the human-environment-animal nexus). He has published over 160 peer-reviewed papers and received numerous honors and prizes, including the 2021 Bellman Prize, delivering the 2021 Einstein Public Lecture of the American Mathematical Society (AMS), elected Fellow of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), African Scientific Institute (ASI), and the Nigerian Academy of Science (NAS). 

Prior to joining UMD in the summer of 2022, Gumel was Foundation Professor of Mathematics at Arizona State University. He has held various administrative positions, including deputy director of the Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center at Arizona State University, director of the Institute of Industrial Mathematical Sciences, and secretary of the Canadian Applied and Industrial Mathematical Society. Gumel is actively involved with numerous training activities, particularly for members of underrepresented minority populations (such as through the Math Alliance, numerous related REUs, Pan African projects, such as the AIMS project and the African Institute of Science and Technology project spearheaded by the Nelson Mandela Institution).